This is what you are going to get on this page:
– A series of spreadsheets following the fact/critical estimation parameter/model/prediction/values (and so effectively judgments) analysis template. The goal is to provide you with all the information necessary to understand the correct sensitivity analysis for your own value system, so that you can consistently make the correct decision according to that system.
– Some one-pagers that are able to briefly summarize the sensitivity analysis in one-page (or maybe two). Obviously these may be more useful as handouts, or just reinforce the information in the spreadsheets. Note: these documents were made in OpenOffice. MS Word thinks they are corrupt: but if you hit Accept you can open them in MS Word with some deficiencies. (In general any document opened by any non-native editor is going to have jacked-up something)
– In some cases, the sensitivity analysis can be boiled down even further: I have directly placed that text in-line on the page, potentially by categorizing it according to a general template/kind of decision it involves.
– I’ve also placed some markers at the end for things that need to be added. (typically these are “broad spectrum” issues that don’t hinge on one or two of the above categories)
There is an overview spreadsheet that tries to introduce or summarize concepts used in the sub-spreadsheets:
CorePolitics-CommonInformationV2
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Broad-spectrum:
Abortion (non-religious case; if your religion bans it, that’s that):
Abortion Spreadsheet – 2022US
Note the advent of medication abortion adds a drug policy angle onto this, that you have to add onto your enforcement cost. (I did not include due to the drug policy angle below) Long story short, you’re not going to be effective in banning early-term abortions unless you either implement a police state, or have a very large number of sting operations running, along with massive border searches. (that is, you are willing to spend at least hundreds of billions of dollars a year, certainly in the initial phases of operations)
Drug Policy:
Gun Control
GunControl Spreadsheet – 2015USV2
Gun Control One-Pager – 2015V1
Health Care Economic Organization
Health Care Economic Organization Spreadsheet – 2015US
Health Care Organization One-Pager – 2015V1
Budget Styles (e.g. deficit vs. balanced)
Budget Styles Spreadsheet -2015
Informal sensitivity analysis (not persuasive, just explanation):
Aggressive debt vs. conservative approaches: the sensitivity analysis is based on the numerical estimation of the profit to be gained from debt, weighed against the risk of economic failure, the risk of poor execution accuracy causing the state to take on unforeseen levels of debt, and the risk of exhausting reserves of national strength in time of economic setback or war. If the profit margin is high relative to the risks, debt should be taken; otherwise, it should be avoided, even if the endeavor would show some amount of average profit. Historically, states have had a very difficult time staying solvent, even when their existence has not been seriously threatened. This indicates that the execution accuracy of allowing the rulers of a state to access debt is not very good. Economic setbacks and wars occur on the order of a couple of decades apart, so a reserve is always required. However, the specific economic risk/reward and cost/benefit analysis depends on the individual expenditure, so there is not a general answer other than that the average margin of profit must be quite sizable relative to risks and downsides to justify debt.
Genetically Modified Organisms
GMO Template Spreadsheet – 2015
Military Operations (i.e. if you try operation X what will happen)
To Declare War Template Spreadsheet – 2015
Involvement In Global Wars One-Pager – 2015V1
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Following the fact/critical estimation parameter/model/prediction/values evaluation procedure, some decisions involve variation in many of the steps. Drug policy used to be (but is no longer) a good example, as CEP values, models & tuning, subsequent predictions, and personal values differ widely among the participants in those debates. However, some decisions are almost wholly determined based on a very small proportion of this state space.
As such, instead of presenting full-blown spreadsheets on issues that primarily only concern one of the above categories, I’ve decided to make it easier on you, and simply present one-pagers (or comparable) for some issues, instead of making you wade through cruft that doesn’t affect your decisions.
For organizational purposes, find below the current taxonomy:
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Fact-Driven:
Religion – Naturally if you knew 100% that a certain god existed, you’d do whatever that god told you. Of course, this fact is hotly disputed.
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CEP-Driven:
Market-Style vs. Command-Style Economic Organization – any market-based system can trivially be improved on by stating “but if we introduced elements of command at X and Y”. The general question (as opposed to very specific considerations associated with a highly detailed market model) therefore boils down to how good is your command leadership at identifying and addressing problems.
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Model-Driven:
Climate Change – While people vary on how they might want to respond, all of those decisions are heavily based off of how well climate scientists can predict the future climate and its regional effects, as well as their ability to produce accurate component analysis (e.g. how much radiative forcing does additional carbon dioxide create). If climate scientists had 100% certainty on these issues, the correct mitigations would be trivial to identify; but no one is able to definitively hit precise numbers, so the correct policy actions are difficult to determine regardless of value system. (For completeness, there are some data issues that also make the prediction task extremely difficult.)
Climate Change One-Pager – 2015V1
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Value-Driven:
Tax Structure – While there are some fairly neutral administrative considerations, people demand taxes based on their senses of how much harm or good there is in various activities. Consider the statements, “we should tax as not to distort the economy”, “we should tax activities that indicate surplus”, “we should tax things that incur harms for the rest of society”.