—Prediction General Principles—

Pages

Index – What You Should Read On This Site
The 20th Century Is Why You Can’t Give Up Your Guns (or Liberal Government, or…)
How to Vote; Personnel Evaluation with Focus on Elected Officials/Candidates
In 2023, The Elites Formalized The Return To American Terror
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—Process Control—
Options for Influencing Outcomes
The Basic Human Roles And MOEs In Processes
Proper Economic Measures Of Effectiveness / Compensation / Non-Bribery (Used To Describe Jobs, Economic Checklists, and Processes) (draft)
How To Defeat Metrics And Get Efforts Abandoned
Ideologies: Even Brief and Unsophisticated Ones Outperform Most Governments
Progressive Levels of Plan Goodness (Executing Ideal Plan For Robots Is Not Necessarily Optimal For Humans)
Risk Mitigation and Why Even Poor Backup Plans Make Sense When Nothing Is Working
Determining That A Process Is Effective (for some input set) Despite Usually Poor Results
Winning Strategy Decomposition: A Human-Friendly Approach (drafty)
Progressive Levels of Correctness: Omniscient Optimal vs. Correct vs. Justified vs. Reasonable
Planning Reference – Limits On Human Performance And Reliability
Miscellaneous Checklists
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—Prediction General Principles—
How Correctly To Predict From A Logical And Economic Perspective
Correctly Bounding Critical Estimation Parameters
Prediction And People (Claims And Actions)
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—Things To Do (Government)—
A More Proper Hierarchy Of Government Coercion / Acceptable / Non-Arbitrary Policies When Aesthetic Considerations Are Implicated, With The Example Of Energy Efficiency
Adjustments To The Liberal Order Caused By The Mass Surveillance Of Ubiquitous Recording Devices
Alternative Confessions of Guilt (why your favourite dictator did kill his critic, and the proper treatment of criminal conspiracies)
Filtered (Devices, Internet, etc.) Are Expensive, And Dangerous, Toys – And Allowing Them To Exist Wastes Many Billions Of Dollars
Minimum Requirements To Make A Contract (and some situations in which those have not been met)
Overall Results of Rape Standards Study – Need to Formalize Consent
The List Of Actually Required Emergency Powers
The Now Obviously Correct Foreign And Domestic Policy: Biodefended Alliance
The Only Way To Run An Effective Professional Police Force You Can Afford
The Voting Procedure Compromise Which All People Can Tolerate
Why We Should Always Be Comparing (And Contrasting) Ourselves To Hitler
You Only Can Have A Strong Military If You Grant The Franchise (and other freedoms) At Fighting Age
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—Things NOT To Do (Government)—
Abortion, Drug, Information, And Some Gun Bans Have Been Practically Obsoleted By Portable Technology In Any Partially-Free Society
Banning The Use Of A Single Decision Criterion Without A Larger Decision Framework Is Not Legally Coherent
Confessions And The Foolish Practice Of Prosecuting Non-Reporting
Demonstration of Poor Legal Drafting Technique and Its Consequent Enabling of Arbitrary Rule
Establishing No-Evidence Denunciation Rules Enforces Self-Imprisonment, Failed Marriages, High-Cost Child Care, And General Terror
Gun Insurance (for gun control/responsibility) Does Not Make Sense
How To Commit Property Crimes In Major American Cities And Get Away With It (I’m not writing the “how to hire a hitman who eliminates your target and get away with it”, but please accept my claim that there are plenty of policies in major American cities that enable that, too)
How To Enforce Royal Privileges By Parts In The Presence Of Contrary Proclamations (example: civilian gun possession is illegal in the American Empire)
Occupational Pensions Promote Crime
Preferring Security over Liberty Turns Countries into Open Air Prisons
Putting Indefinite Exceptions On Human Rights Effectively Removes Protections Of Those Liberties
Specifying Information Contraband (e.g. Kiddie Porn) Enables Anyone To Frame Anyone, Creating General Terror
The Government Practically Cannot Uphold A Policy Of Neutrality In Offenses Against The Just Law
Ways People (usually in government) Steal Money And Goods Without Calling It Theft
What Debt Instruments Should Be Substituted, Or Just Eliminated
Why You Don’t Want to Stop Reputational Attacks Like Revenge Porn
You Don’t Want Your Workplace Or Other Organization To Grade Themselves On Diversity Similarity To A Larger Population
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—Government And Education—
Alternative Approaches To Reduce The Cost Of Urban Public Education And Maintain Or Improve Quality
Relative Cost and Quality of Schooling Options
The Historical Evidence Now Proves School Choice And Mobility Are Required To Achieve Maximum Student Learning
Measurements Of Effectiveness And Performance Relating To Voting Capability Achieved By Formal Education (currently: not very effective)
The Critical Importance Of The Specialized Instruction Benefit Hypothesis In Organization And Equality In Education
The Purposes Of Applying Taxpayer Funds To Schooling, And How Those Purposes Dictate Your Decisions About Curriculum and School Structure
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—Government – Law Enforcement—
(only) Registering Guns May Increase Crime
(partial and currently only indicative of future direction, list of) Notorious Criminals, in rough order of magnitude of crimes committed (2021)
A Class Of Reliable Evidence Found During Other Searches? (drafty, optional read for bedtime, not conclusive)
In What Order Should Targets Be Neutralized/Punished/Eliminated?
Non-Professional Policing Approaches
Open Carry Is Far More Secure Than Paid, Armed Security Guards Protecting The Unarmed Masses
Proper Approaches To Neutralization Of Threats And Use Of Force In Policing – Draft
Reporting Crimes In Situations Where The Police And Military Are Dangerous
The Correctness Of Emergency Vigilante Law Enforcement As Exampled Using Sutherland Springs
The Infeasibility Of Self-Kept Circumstantial Evidence (ignoring forgery and provenance issues)
The Odds Of Assassination And Its Consequences For Plans To Prevent The Next Hitler
Tiers Of Due Process And The Optimality Of Professional vs. Layman Response To Crime (in well-resourced policing settings)
What Are The Optimal Individual Actions Against Dictators Whom You Can’t Reach With A Suicide Attack?
What Does It Mean To Be A Lawful Government/A Government That Abides By Its Written Constitution?
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—Government And The Economy—
Fully Accounting For Homemaker And Caregiver Labor
List Of Jobs That Need Doing To Absorb Mass Unemployment (intermittently updated)
Tax Dollars Come From Individuals, So They Either Can Be Proportionally Spent On The Same Individuals’ Preferred Options, Or On Required Common Needs
The Requirements That Defeating Russia/China-sized Military Threats Places On The Economy And Civil Society
What Is The True “Market Rate” Of Labor In Economic Scarcity? (specifically related to charity and ethics)
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—Government – General Thoughts—
Accounting For Justice And Reparations Across Generations
Almost Everything (including guns) Has A Legitimate Civilian (Ordinary Person) Use
Current Alliances – American Empire, Russo-Iranian Alliance, Beijing East Asia, etc. (2020)
Generative AI Means Publicly Published And Kept Records Are The Only Remaining Reliable Documentary (not physical) Evidence
Land Use And City Transportation Modality/Infrastructure – Suggestions For Guiding Principles For Accommodating Everyone’s Preferences In The Context Of A Growing City/Province
Options For Re-Constituting Intact Family Units Capable Of Properly Raising Children
Options To Ensure That A Well-Run Prison System Isn’t As Good As The Outside
Punishments That Align To Desired Actions For People Caught Up In Murderous Regimes
Ranking Of Most Important Criteria When Setting Up A Representative Body (e.g. Redistricting) And A Suggestion (among many possible ways) Deterministically To Approximate It
Recognizing The Practical Limits Of Illiberal Value Systems (e.g. you are better than everyone else) And Knowing What Kind Of Government Corresponds To Each Value System
Reference Threats (Incomplete)
Sensitivity Analyses Via Facts->CEPs->Models->Predictions->Evaluation In Value System For Various Policy Controversies
The Military Is Best Served Preferentially To Draft The Old, Decrepit, And Highly Skilled
The Nicholas Roske Case Is The New Canonical Example Of Lawlessness and Royalism Obscured By Complex Laws and Implemented With Enticement Propaganda
The Requirements And Limits Of Free Speech In All Areas Of A Free Society
The Saturation Point Of Transportation Trips And The Economic Upper Bound On Lightweight Passenger Travel (related to the technical and economic feasibility of mass transit, including BRT)
There Are No Risk-Free Choices When It Comes To Potentially Or Actually Violent People
There Is No Broadly Defensible General Principle That Prevents The Inhibition Of Religion By Government
Why Any Censorship Or Gross Opacity Imposed By Force Or Threat (vs. the coordination of like-minded people) Is A Capital Offense
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—Explanations—
“You’re right, but…”
Even In Liberal Democracies, Large Numbers Of People Never Consent To Their Situation
If You Believe In It So Much, Why Don’t You Do It? Here’s Why (Limited Resources and Specialization of Labor Angle)
If You Believe In It So Much, Why Don’t You Do It? Here’s Why (Functional Angle)
What Do We Have to Hide? Plenty
Why Charity Is A Tax On Righteousness
Ambiguity Reductions Of General Words
“Gun Safety” Is Poor Rhetoric
“It hasn’t happened yet, so there is no threat and no problem with this”
“We Can’t / It’s Not Realistic”
“Why Don’t You Feel Emotion/Talk About This?”
“You Don’t Have The Right/Who Gave You The Right To Enforce The Law?”
Disambiguating What People Mean When They Talk About “Respect”
Hope (Maybe) Only Makes Sense When You Talk About Human Decisions
Paranoia Is Obsolete
Restraint, Choices, And Constructive Alternatives
The Essential Conditions Of Slavery
The Religious Statement “Believe In Science”
Why Erasing History Isn’t What You Want (not even as a dictator)
Why Government (or social, etc.) Actions And Regulation May Make The Term “Owner” Inaccurate
Why I Don’t Worry About Being Taken Out Of Context
“Real Work”, Valuable Work, and What It Takes to Succeed
Self-Righteousness, Purity, “True” Whistleblowers, And Other Means Of Punishing Correct Behavior
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—Technique Discussions—
A God May Be Able To Change The Whole World, But You Never Will Know It
Evaluating War-Winning Plans
How To Make A Conspiracy Theory Impossible To Dismiss (feat. Plandemic and Great Replacement)
Prediction Bounds’ Implicit Consequences on Model Composition and Validation
The Impossibility of Denying Most Threats
When To Use Experiments/History Instead of Theory/Prediction Techniques
You Rationally Cannot Proselytize Religion Without Converting Your Listener To National Socialism
Bounding The Limits Of Appeals To Expertise As A Proxy For Understanding
Consequence Alienation – Why Only Long-Term Rational Approaches Usually Maximize Utility
History Partitioning To Determine Probability Always Is Possible, And Always Is Wrong (This Time Never Is Different)
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—Personal Philosophies—
There Are Exactly Two Good Reasons To Have Children
Our Children Have To Become Adults Around The Age Of 12 And How We Can Enable Them To Do So
Understanding Benefits (or not) of (for instance athletic) Competitions
My Prediction Record (inconsistently updated)
You Should Make The Pledge, “I Will Never Commit Suicide”, If You Have Powerful Enemies
Only The Rich Can Know What They Can Afford To Give To Charity (In Many Societies)
Diet and Fitness Approach – Average People
Suggestion For Personal Routine Checklist
A Typically Optimal Personal Growth/Study/Child-Raising Checklist/Map
Are There Practical Limits To Self-Harming Questions Or Information?
In The American Empire, You Will Be Punished For Saying How You Feel (Especially If You Are Suicidal), So Never Answer The Question
What I Hide On My Profile, And What You Should As Well
What I Will Lie to You About
Making The Right Choices When You’re Tired Of Life, Terminally Ill, Or About To Be Demented
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—Sex, Relationships, Children, and Marriage – Not Because I’m The Ideal Of Knowledge, But Because It Relates To Government And Too Many Others Are Scared To Tell The Truth—
Contract And Compatibility Marriages, And Why A Contract Marriage Is Not Viable In A Free Society
Frequent, Good Sex (especially without condoms) With A Serially Monogamous Person, Is The Only Common Reason Why You Would Date/Marry A Single Parent As An Engaged Co-Parent
High Divorce and Infidelity Rates Are The Most Important Reason To Have Children That Look Like You
If You Want Kids Raised By Their Biological Spouse, You Only Can Compromise On Lifestyle And Looks
The Sex Contract Concept And The Tradeoffs Of Rape, Marriage, and Prostitution
The Tradeoffs Of Child Custody And Support Policy
Waiting To Find The Right Person With Whom To Start A Family Is Not Feasible For 95+% Of The Population In Liberal Societies
Why Screening Mates By Sexual Compatibility Isn’t Viable (and not only because you will get VD)
With The Usual Caveats, In Developed Society, Women Have Almost Every Veto On Child Conception, And They Have Sole Power Over Every Choice To Proceed With Pregnancy
The Kind Of Sex (And Relationships) You Should Be Having
Why Promiscuous Sex (and Rubbering) Is Not Worth It For Most People
Various Tests I’ve Heard People Recommend As A Yes/No On Whether You Should Marry Your Lover
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—Various Opinions—
Measures of Effectiveness & Personnel Evaluation Related to Software
A Stronger Argument For Selling Oneself Into Slavery
Buying Patriotic Is Not A Simple Thing
Characterizing Effectiveness Of Influence (WIRMA)
Collection of Official Testimony (Maryland / Howard County based)
Configuration, Detailed Consultation, And Non-Obvious Monitoring Is Infeasible For Marginally Beneficial Activity (Aesthetics Economy Focus)
Examples of Systemic Racism In The American Empire (2020)
Income Inequality And Why Getting Filthy Rich Must Be Realistic In Today’s Economy
Maybe Effective Ways To Refute Criticism of Your Credibility Based On Your Emotional Presentation And Social Status?
Organizational Accountability And Why Modifications To Current Strategy Require A Full Stakeholder Approval To Avoid Embezzlement
Perspective Is The Typical Information-Age Casual Conversation Benefit
Prisoners Should Be The Healthiest, Most (Health) Experimented On Individuals In Society
Pronoun Wars, Transgender Bathrooms, and Other Such Considerations (alternatively, the “small minority wants something and what do you do about it”)
The Factors That Determine The Value Of A Human Birth Currently (2023) Do Not Indicate Any Possible Average Contribution Other Than Personal And Religious
The Infeasibility of Taboos And Aesthetic Totalitarianism
Ways to Reduce Risk of Rape
We Are Not Honoring The Hippocratic Oath When We Build Barriers To Practicing Medicine That’s Better Than Nothing
We Can’t Save The Planet (e.g. climate change) Because We Refuse To Save Ourselves
Whether Conflicts of Religious Civilizations Are Inevitable
Why Almost Everyone Will Mislead Or Lie To You
Why Community Standards And “Consensus” Heeding Guarantee Censorship And Make Services And Content Useless
Why Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew Was Not Exceptional
Why You Should, Or Should Not, Believe In Religion
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—Metaphysics Header—
Metaphysics Conclusions Brief Summary
1. Sensations – Basic Metaphysical Vocabulary
2. Memories – Describing The General Nature of My Conscious Thought
3. Describing the Operation of Reason & “Free Will”
5. Compressing High-Correlation Sensation Data into Colloquial Terms
Explaining Human Happiness As The Evaluation In Actual Situations Of The Lifetime Value Function
Casual Metaphysics of Sight
Interpersonal Value Systems (e.g. Royalism vs. Counters)
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—Miscellaneous—
Hints on Learning Languages involving Chinese Characters/Kanji
Notes on Types of Games and the Ideal Gaming Experience
What Kind Of Car And Options Do You Need? (off-road, performance, etc.) (as of early 2023, 48-states focused)
References (ridiculously incomplete)
Hey, this site sux! I want to complain!
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