Note: the purpose of this document is to clarify the terminology and relationships between various actors, which often are confused or ignored. It is not designed to act as a deep foreign policy or military reference, and it does not contain any information based on or confirming/denying sensitive sources (for example the nuke numbers are from my offhand recollection of newspapers and reference to public arms control websites).
Supreme/mass WMD alliances:
- The Western alliance, led by the American Empire (AE) (that styles itself as the United States). Its notional North American territory (the 48 states, plus Alaska, Hawaii, and a number of possessions) is not that large by land area, but it maintains a large number of bases including at Guam, Bahrain, Yokosuka, and in the Gulf States area. Its nuclear triad is the most powerful and in theory it even could bully the Russo-Iranian alliance. This alliance has as its primary vassals Britain (some nukes but not that fearsome), Canada, Australia, and a large number of “independent” islands. Secondary vassals include Israel (proxy warrior, lots of nukes, could be argued it is primary and not a vassal), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, many of the Gulf States, and most of Europe (via NATO), to which the AE either provides weapons, has bases, or both. Looser alliance members include India and much of Central and South America.
- The Russo-Iranian alliance has as its dominant member the Russian Empire (RE) (Moscow Mafia) which directly administers a portion of Europe adjacent to the Urals, Siberia, some Caucasian territory, some offshore islands in the Arctic, the Crimea, and the Donbass region in the Ukraine. It also maintains a limited number of other bases such as in Latakia in Syria. The RE has a vast stockpile of nukes and, as a result of evidence obtained from international murders, apparently maintains some bioweapons and chemical capability, though to what extent is unclear in the open literature. However, their delivery mechanisms aren’t that numerous or powerful due to economic constraints, despite maintaining high levels of technological prowess. The RE also holds as vassal states Belarus, portions of the Caucasus, and to some extent various Stans in Central Asia, although this can be loose – it’s more economic integration and having a big neighbor in your backyard. The RE has ties to various smaller European countries but their political influence highly varies. The other principal member of the alliance is a pan-Iranian/Shiite empire consisting of Iran, Syria, certain parts of Yemen, Iraq to some extent, and Lebanon. Iran is the motive force behind most military action, whether in direction or support. The Russian Empire supports but with limited forces to tip the balance. The RE also provides irregular international support (such as with its Wagner organization) to various conflicts.
- The Beijing-East Asia alliance is dominated by the Beijing Empire, which consists of the territory of the Beijing Mafia (PRC), North Korea/Pyongyang Mafia (DPRK), and minor possessions, mainly in the South China Sea. The Beijing Empire is establishing some bases in Africa, Sri Lanka, Oceania, and elsewhere in the world, but its power projection to date has been limited beyond the South/East Asia area. The Beijing Empire’s WMD arsenal exact size is uncertain, but likely consists of hundreds of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles. Their conventional military is regional but growing in power, not quite equal to the Western alliance, but large enough to cause serious damage, especially at sea. They count as economic partners Burma, Pakistan, and have some limited influence in other Southeast Asian countries and in Central Asia. They also have significant trading links with Africa including a great deal of material extraction, but only limited military power or influence in that area. Normally the Beijing Mafia uses the Pyongyang Mafia to wage proxy conflict, supporting it economically. The true extent of a renewed Sino-Soviet alliance is unclear, as to whether it is just economic (e.g. gas pipelines) or whether one will support the other in large-scale conventional armed conflict.
Other international alliances that hold significant amounts of territory:
- Desert (North Africa/Arabian Peninsula) Alliance: The historical American Empire/Egypt/Israel/Gulf State alliance has slightly changed primary actors and borders (e.g. allying with Hifter in Libya) but the mechanics still are: the AE supplies weapons, funding, and protection from the Russo-Iranian alliance, while the remainder of the Desert Alliance attacks the fringe of the Russo-Iranian alliance, Shiite movements, Pan-Sunnite Caliphate Movement, and other small fry targets.
- Pan-Sunnite Caliphate Movement: Members of this super-movement include various factions of Al-Qaeda, Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, Salafist Front for Preaching and/or Jihad, Boko Haram, and other regional warbands. Use of the term “alliance” sort of makes sense most of the time, but it’s not strictly accurate as the sub-organizations seem to be acting independently with independent resources. Some of them even fight each other, for example HTS (was al-Nusra Front) and ISIS. This super-movement, fighting for rule by Sunnite Muslims, opposes the Desert Alliance, other members of the Western alliance depending on their level of involvement (e.g. France in Mali), and sometimes the Russo-Iranians, depending on the region. Notionally they also oppose the Beijing-East Asia alliance, but military action in that area is difficult due to distance, terrain, and the technological police state implemented in East Turkestan.
- Cubo-Venezuelan alliance: one could argue it’s actually Cuba dominating Venezuela at this point. Historically Cuba supported with professionals and security services while Venezuela provided oil. These two actors have ties with Russia and other international parties relating to oil and oil debts, however the status is unclear; much of this support may be in kind for creating turmoil amongst the members of the Western alliance. Their forces are extremely weak and they exist at the pleasure of the Western and Russo-Iranian alliances (although the latter might not have sufficient naval strength to risk confrontation with the Western alliance).
- American drug cartels: in each country the situation varies, but in Central America and the northern part of South American, these cartels hold territory, sometimes administering taxation. Via bribes, at any given time they may control or neutralize the governments of a handful of different countries in the region. They have no large conventional or WMD forces but maintain sizable guerilla forces as well as the allegiance of whatever governments. Venezuela is part of this alliance (therefore the theoretical implication of Cuban support). Funding is provided from a combination of drug sales to the citizens of the Western alliance, but also from local taxation, as well as organized crime operations.
Other large or internationally active military forces:
- Pakistan. Pakistan now defines the English word “frenemy” as they have links with the Western, Russo-Iranian, and Beijing-East Asia alliances, while both supporting and fighting the armed groups that resist various of these alliance’ agendas. Pakistan is believed to have a hundred-strong nuclear warhead stockpile, although delivery capability may be lacking relative to its stronger neighbor India. Hostility to India as the result of previous wars remains a defining tenet of their justifications for their contradictory foreign policy, and continued support of militant groups.
- India. India engages in minor conflicts with Pakistan, but it also maintains ties with all major nuclear alliances, though tensions with Beijing-East Asia remain as the result of border disputes. It has its own roughly hundred-strong nuclear warhead stockpile and also is developing delivery capabilities resembling those of the major nuclear alliances.
- Turkey: Turkey has taken an authoritarian turn in the last few years and now clearly is an autocracy led by Erdogan. It is a regional military power and has as its primary enemy the Kurdish insurgency and nation-state in southeast Anatolia and northern Mesopotamia. Its stance between the Westerns, Russo-Iranians, and the pan-Sunnite alliance has been shifting based apparently on threats or opportunities relative to the Kurds, or to other temporizing diplomatic considerations such as trade opportunities with Russia or the AE.
- Kurdistan: the Kurds mostly rule a territory in northern Iraq, but also have a long-running insurgency in Southeastern Anatolia and have expanded into northern Syria as currently. They mostly are a proxy for the AE, but the AE has not supported their regional ambitions for any significant amount of time, leading to significant deaths and territorial losses. Turkey and Iran both greatly oppose the Kurds and likely only their utility as a buffer/proxy state for various conflicts has allowed the Kurds to hold their territory.
- Iraq: Iraq’s status changes every few years based on the moves of the great powers. As currently it is dominated by Shiite militias from Iran, but it remains vulnerable to internal rebellion and attack from all sides.